原油价格将上涨. 通货膨胀会加速. 消费者将削减开支. 美国.S. 美联储将提高利率以对抗通货膨胀. 更高的利率将减少商业投资. And the barrage of bad 新闻 from Ukraine will weigh on consumers’ psyches. 

经济增长将放缓，但不太可能出现局部衰退. 该地区刚刚结束了有记录以来就业增长最好的一年. 公司继续在这里搬迁或扩大皇冠HGA010官方下载. 人口增长依然强劲. 美国.S. 经济持续扩张. 虽然休斯顿与俄罗斯和乌克兰有商业联系, 这些关系只占休斯顿国际皇冠HGA010官方下载的一小部分. The conflict may slow growth, but it’s unlikely to drag the Houston into recession. That said, one should be aware of the risks the conflict poses for the local economy.

较弱的贸易

俄罗斯和乌克兰的经济衰退是肯定的. Moody’s forecasts the 俄罗斯 economy will shrink 15% or more this year, 乌克兰的降幅高达30%. Houston’s exposure to the 俄罗斯 and 乌克兰 economies is small, however. 两者加起来只占3%.3%(3美元).休斯顿的进口总额为1000亿美元.占该地区进口的6%(6.84亿美元).

休斯敦出口了少量的工业机械, 车辆, 化学物质, 塑料, 并向两国提供了科学仪器. 21年，原油占休斯顿从俄罗斯进口的80%, 其次是少量的钢材, 木, 铝, 化学物质, 和化肥. 对乌克兰, 休斯顿出口车辆, 燃料, 21年的工业机械和进口钢材, 铁矿石, 电机, 动物脂肪.

只有几家当地公司在俄罗斯有皇冠HGA010官方下载. According to Global Houston ’21, only 26 Houston firms operate subsidiaries in the country.  同样，只有四家俄罗斯公司在休斯敦有皇冠HGA010官方下载. 从这个角度来看, 90家休斯顿公司在英国经营311家分公司, 176 U.K. 这些公司在休斯顿有365个分支机构. 离家更近, 38 Houston firms operate 109 subsidiaries in Mexico and eight Mexican firms operate 21 subsidiaries in the Houston.

油价上涨

3月8日，美国.S. President Joe Biden banned the import of crude and refined products from Russia. 英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)迅速宣布，美国将退出欧盟.K. 也会效仿. Several members of the European Union (EU) have signaled they would curtail 俄罗斯 crude imports by the end of the year as well.

在休斯顿, the direct impact of the embargo will be felt at two refineries that import crude from Russia, 埃克森美孚在贝敦，瓦莱罗在德克萨斯城. The indirect impact will be felt by all Houstonians as higher prices at the pump.

Financial markets had anticipated the embargo and other supply constraints, 在拜登宣布前几天推高了价格. Between February 24 (the day Russia invaded Ukraine) and March 8 (the day Biden announced the boycott), the spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped $23 per barrel, a 25.10天内增长了6%. Since then, prices have slipped but remain well above where they stood prior to the invasion.

The surge in energy prices won’t lead to hiring or drilling booms, at least not initially. 多年来，美国.S. exploration firms have learned how to produce more oil with fewer employees. 在休斯顿，上游的就业率下降了34%.2 percent (102,000 jobs) since December ’14 while domestic crude production has jumped 21.0% (2).1亿桶/天). 还有一个明显的滞后, 长达六到九个月, from when a company decides to ramp up drilling and when additional production comes online. 除此之外, drillers were struggling to find crews to operate their rigs prior to the run-up in oil prices.

在短期内，更高的价格将带来更高的利润, but the war and its sanctions will weigh on major oil producers for years. BP, Equinor, Exxon and Shell have all decided to halt all long-running operations in Russia. 仅这四项资产剥离就将导致超过33美元的资产减记.20亿年. 还有管理这些项目的休斯顿人, 提供翻译服务, and otherwise facilitate business with Russia may lose their jobs as well.

燃油价格上涨

The reopening of the global economy that began in ’21 had already caused a run up in prices at the pump. 从一月二十一日到一月二十二日, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline on the Texas Gulf Coast rose from $1.95 to $2.95美元一加仑. 

较高的物价削减了家庭预算. 典型的四口之家(双亲), 两个孩子, 2辆车)消耗约1辆,每年消耗1000加仑汽油. 每加仑上涨1美元意味着消费者需要1美元,000 more to meet their basic transportation needs this year compared to last. Since January, the price of a gallon of regular has jumped another 88 cents a gallon. 现在，每个家庭将需要近2美元的预算,000 more for 燃料 purchases this year than they did at the start of ’21. 

Diesel prices have followed a similar trajectory and are up 84 percent since January ’21. Over 70 percent of the nation’s freight is moved by trucks; the increase in diesel prices will be passed along to consumers.

油价会涨到多高? Moody’s estimates that every $10 increase in the price of crude results in 30 cents in-crease at the pump. 原油价格会涨到多高? 高盛(Goldman Sachs)预测，今年原油价格将达到每桶135美元. 巴克莱(Barclays)和Rystad 皇冠HGA010官方下载警告称，油价可能触及200美元. 然而，期货市场却有着不同的前景. 3月14日, 这篇时事通讯出版的那天, WTI futures traded on the NYMEX never topped $100 per barrel through the end of the year. 唯一的例外是4月份交割的原油价格为每桶101美元.86美元/桶.

更多的通货膨胀

在截至22年2月的12个月中，通货膨胀率加速至7%.9%. 涨幅最大的是燃料、食品和住房费用. 这些是非自由支配的项目.e.日常生活所必需的开支. 当必需品的价格上涨快于工资上涨时, 消费者缩减了可自由支配的开支, i.e.、生活方式购买. If inflation remains elevated, consumers will cut back on entertainment, travel, and dining out. Houston’s leisure and hospitality sector would feel the brunt of this shift. 

就在拜登总统宣布美国退出伊拉克的那天.S. 会停止从俄罗斯进口原油吗, Bloomberg modeled the impact higher crude prices might have on inflation. 在每桶140美元时，通货膨胀率超过9%. 在160美元时，它达到了9美元.5%. 在180美元时，它超过了10%. However, as noted earlier, crude is not expected to reach those heights.

供应链约束

俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦供应国. 加上乌克兰，它占全球出口的25%. 俄罗斯也出口了大量大豆, 玉米, 大麦, 除了钾肥，还有其他谷物, 钾, 和肥料. 美国.S. 也是一个主要的小麦和谷物出口国吗, 所以美国农民可能会从俄罗斯的制裁中受益, but at the expense of American consumers who will be paying more at the grocery store. 美国农民可能会为化肥支付更多的费用, 其成本将转嫁给消费者.

俄罗斯也是铝的主要出口国, 铜, 钴, 和镍, 也是世界上最大的钯出口国, 拥有超过20%的全球市场份额. 钯用于催化转化器. 汽车供应链, 已经在为全球计算机芯片短缺而苦苦挣扎, 会出现更多的短缺和成本上升吗.

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注:本出版物中所指的地理区域为“休斯顿”,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. 这九个县是:奥斯汀, Brazoria, 钱伯斯, 本德堡, 加尔维斯顿, 哈里斯, 自由, 蒙哥马利和沃勒.