Editor’s Note: The following summarizes the Partnership’s ’24 就业 forecast released December 7, 2023. The summary includes several economic indicators that have been updated since the forecast was first released. 这些更新并没有改变前景. 完整的天气预报可在 www.休斯顿.org/economy.

24年的增长将比23年慢. 更高的利率, 持续的劳动力短缺, 减少政府开支, 更严格的贷款标准, 以及商业地产的动荡 will weigh on the economy. 如果美国.S. 慢了，休斯敦也慢了. 

当地经济放缓的迹象已经出现:

• Through November of ’23, metro Houston created 57,300 private sector jobs. That’s down from 121,100 over the comparable period in ’22. 
• 贝克休斯U型.S. rig count slipped to 622 the last week of December ’23, down from 779 the same week in ’22.
• Adjusted for inflation, sales tax collections in the region’s twelve most populous cities were up 2.到10月0%. 而在22年的同一时期，他们只领先5分.1%.
• Construction activity peaked in ’22 and has trended down since. City of Houston building permits through October are down 8.9 percent compared to ’22, after adjusting for inflation. 道奇数据公司的初步报告 & Analytics suggest activity outside the city is down by as much as 20%.

经济衰退仍有可能发生, but it would be triggered by events beyond the Fed’s control, 比如全球贸易战, 极端天气事件, 大陆和台湾之间的直接冲突, 长时间的U.S. 政府关门, 油价飙升, the Israel-Hamas war spreading to other countries, and the Ukraine-Russia war spiraling into a global conflict. The Partnership assigns no probabilities to these events but acknowledges any one of them could dramatically alter this forecast.

Three factors will temper growth in ’24—a tight labor market, 持续的高利率, 以及商业地产的动荡. 

劳动力市场吃紧

美国.S. 劳动力 will continue to grow but not fast enough to keep pace with the demand for workers. 美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)估计.7 million Americans joined the 劳动力 between November ’22 and November ’23. 11月，有8个.800万个职位空缺. 

雇主总是有空缺职位. Some workers quit, others retire, or the firm needs the extra hands to expand operations. 当前的缺口水平, 然而, is 37 percent above the average number of openings in the five years prior to the pandemic. Unless more workers come off the sidelines or the U.S. allows more legal immigration, chronic worker shortages will prevail.

利率和通货膨胀

年通货膨胀率为3%.11月为1%. The core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy, was 4.0%. Most forecasts call for core inflation to track 2.在24年的大部分时间里，5%或更高. As long as the in¬flation rate tracks above the Fed’s preferred 2.0%目标, the bank is unlikely to lower interest rates despite what the financial markets suggest.

商业地产困境

Turmoil in commercial real estate will also impede growth. A recent study by Newmark Group, a real estate firm, determined that $1.2万亿美元.S. commercial real estate debt is highly leveraged while property values are falling. Office buildings account for more than half of the at-risk debt set to mature within the next two years. 
Banks are setting aside reserves to cover potential losses. 他们还减少了贷款. Half of all respondents to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicated they tightened lending standards to small, 中等大小的, and large firms in Q2/23 and a third did so in Q3/23.

养老基金, 私人股本集团, and insurance companies have also become more careful with their lending and acquisitions. Across the board, access to capital will be limited and impede growth.

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Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. 这九个县是:奥斯汀, Brazoria, 钱伯斯, 本德堡, 加尔维斯顿, 哈里斯, 自由, 蒙哥马利和沃勒.